Beneath every equity move sits the machinery of rates, bonds and the macro data that drives them. This page collects Khan Capital’s coverage of the yield curve, the bond market, inflation and the currency and central-bank forces that shape the global cycle. Each section links to our detailed analysis.
Latest in this story
The ECB Rate Hike: 2.5% Against an Oil Shock, With the Lesson of 2022 in Hand · 19 Aug 2026
The bond market’s warning signals
The bond market often speaks first. The 2019 yield-curve inversion flashed its classic recession signal; the dynamic returned in later curve and yield-control shocks; and the 10-year Treasury hitting 5% marked the return of the bond vigilantes. The most violent episode of the year so far came in mid-August, when four sovereign bond markets hit multidecade yield highs in a single week. By September the Treasury’s buyback response had tripled to $6 billion per operation as the Treasury became a buyer of its own long end, and the ECB answered the same energy shock with its second hike of 2026 and the Treasury answered with buybacks.
When bonds broke
Fixed income has had its own crises. The global bond bear market was the worst year for fixed income in centuries; the synchronised sovereign rout saw Japan, the UK and US long bonds break together; and the US debt-ceiling crisis put the world’s risk-free asset in question.
Inflation and the cost of living
The inflation surge reset the entire cycle. The “transitory” debate framed the early misjudgement; inflation at 6.8% forced the Fed to retire the word; the cost-of-living crisis brought it home to consumers; and more recently the 2026 PPI shock tested the disinflation narrative.
Currencies, central banks and rotation
The macro picture is global. The strong-dollar wrecking ball rippled worldwide; the ECB ended negative rates in Europe and the Bank of Japan ended its own after 17 years. The resilience of growth ran through the soft-landing debate, while capital rotated via the great diversification out of US stocks and the quiet Russell 2000 small-cap leadership of 2026.
The through-line
The common thread is that rates and the macro data are the gravity acting on every other asset. We update this hub as the cycle turns; the latest analysis always appears first on our analysis page.