Category: Monetary Policy
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From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed Rate Hike Repricing Before Warsh’s First FOMC
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways A Week That Rewrote the Path of Policy For most of the past eighteen months, the central debate in rates markets was about the pace of descent: how quickly the Federal Reserve would lower the policy rate from its restrictive perch, and how far it would travel before…
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The 8-4 Split: Powell’s Last Stand and the Stagflation Question
Khan Capitals | May 2026 Key Takeaways A Vote That Has Not Happened in Three Decades The 29 April FOMC decision was, on its face, a non-event: the federal funds rate was held in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range for a third consecutive meeting, exactly as fed funds futures had priced. The substance, however, sat…
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The Warsh Doctrine: Regime Change Pricing Arrives Ahead of the April FOMC
Khan Capitals | April 2026 Key Takeaways A Hearing That Moved the Curve Kevin Warsh’s 21 April appearance before the Senate Banking Committee was always going to be scrutinised for political signal. It ended up being scrutinised for something more technical and, for the fixed income market, more substantive: an outline of a discrete shift…
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The Return of the Hawk: How the Fed’s March Minutes Shattered the Soft Landing Consensus
Khan Capital | April 2026 Key Takeaways The Hawkish Pivot: A Minutes Release That Redrew the Policy Map When the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its 17-18 March meeting on the afternoon of 9 April 2026, the cross-asset response was immediate. Two-year Treasury yields jumped in the minutes following the release. The…
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Fed Holds Amid Iran War: Walking the Tightrope Between Jobs and Inflation
The Fed holds rates as 92,000 jobs vanish and oil-driven inflation surges. Caught between a weakening economy and rising prices, the central bank faces its most difficult policy dilemma since the Volcker era.
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Fed Cuts Again: Three Consecutive Cuts to Close 2025
Three consecutive rate cuts bring the fed funds rate to 3.50-3.75% as the most internally divided Fed in decades navigates missing data, political pressure, and a genuine stagflationary dilemma. Why the cutting cycle is approaching its endpoint.
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Fed Pauses Rate Cuts: Higher for Longer Returns
The Fed holds rates steady as tariffs create a stagflationary dilemma: rising inflation that argues for tightening and a softening labour market that argues for easing. Why higher for longer has returned in a new and more complex form.
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Fed Signals Fewer Cuts in 2025: Inflation Stalls, Markets Stumble
The Fed cuts rates but slashes its 2025 projection from four cuts to two, triggering the sharpest post-FOMC sell-off in months. Why the easy phase of the easing cycle is over and what it means for 2025.
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The Fed Cuts Rates: First Reduction Since 2020 and a 50bp Surprise
The Fed opens the easing cycle with a surprise 50bp cut, the first rate reduction since March 2020 and the largest opening move since the pre-financial-crisis era. What the pivot from inflation-fighting to employment-protection means for every asset class.
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Bank of Japan Ends Negative Rates: A Historic Shift After 17 Years
The Bank of Japan ends the world’s last negative interest rate experiment after 17 years. Why the most important policy shift in a generation was met with a shrug, and what the global implications will be as they unfold.