Category: Monetary Policy
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The Bank of England’s Dovish Hold: 6-3 at 3.75 Per Cent and the Hike Bailey Buried
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent with Mann, Greene and Pill dissenting for a hike, and Bailey told markets he is not edging toward one. Two-year gilts saw their steepest drop since June. Inside the dovish hold, the MPR’s quiet undershoot, and the Fed mirror.
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The Fed’s Triple Dissent: A 9-3 Hold and the Most Hawkish Vote in a Decade
The FOMC held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a hike: the first unified triple dissent since 2016. Inside the most hawkish Fed vote in a decade, Warsh’s no-guidance doctrine, and the 19-year high in the 30-year yield.
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The ECB’s Hawkish Hold: Rates Stay at 2.25 Per Cent With September Live
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25 per cent on 23 July, six weeks after its first hike since 2023. With inflation at 2.8 per cent, growth at 0.8 per cent and Brent near $92, the September decision is being written in the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Hike That Came Back: Pricing a September Rate Hike After the Minutes
A week after the jobs report buried it, the September rate hike is back at 64% odds. Inside the Fed’s 9-8 split, the oil shock that revived the bet, and the yields quietly grinding toward May’s highs.
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Core PCE at 3.4%: The Inflation Data Behind the Fed’s Hawkish Turn
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. An Inflation Print That Validates the Hawks For most of the past two years the argument inside the Federal Reserve was about the speed of the descent. Inflation was falling, the only…
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The Hawkish Hold: Inside Warsh’s First FOMC and the End of Forward Guidance
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. Warsh’s First FOMC: A Hold That Was Read as a Hike Warsh’s first FOMC as chair was never likely to turn on the rate decision itself. Fed funds futures had assigned roughly…
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From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed Rate Hike Repricing Before Warsh’s First FOMC
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Week That Rewrote the Path of Policy For most of the past eighteen months, the central debate in rates markets was about the pace of descent: how quickly the Federal Reserve…
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The 8-4 Split: Powell’s Last Stand and the Stagflation Question
Khan Capitals | May 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Vote That Has Not Happened in Three Decades The 29 April FOMC decision was, on its face, a non-event: the federal funds rate was held in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range…
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The Warsh Doctrine: Regime Change Pricing Arrives Ahead of the April FOMC
Khan Capitals | April 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Hearing That Moved the Curve Kevin Warsh’s 21 April appearance before the Senate Banking Committee was always going to be scrutinised for political signal. It ended up being scrutinised for something…
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The Return of the Hawk: How the Fed’s March Minutes Shattered the Soft Landing Consensus
Khan Capital | April 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. The Hawkish Pivot: A Minutes Release That Redrew the Policy Map When the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its 17-18 March meeting on the afternoon of 9 April 2026,…