Tag: Federal Reserve
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Fed Funds at 5.5%: The End of the Hiking Cycle?
The Fed reaches 5.25-5.50%, the highest rate in 22 years, completing 525 basis points of tightening in 16 months. Why the peak rate is not a signal to position for cuts, and how to navigate an extended plateau of restrictive policy.
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Banking Crisis 2023: Signature Bank, Silvergate, and Contagion Fears
Three US banks fail in five days as the crypto-banking nexus, interest rate risk, and social media-accelerated runs converge in the most acute banking panic since 2008. How the Fed’s emergency BTFP backstopped $600 billion in unrealised losses.
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Silicon Valley Bank Collapse: The Fastest Bank Run in History
The largest US bank failure since 2008 unfolds in 48 hours as $42 billion in deposits flee SVB in a single day. How a duration mismatch, social media-accelerated bank runs, and $600 billion in unrealised losses reshaped the banking landscape.
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2022 Year in Review: The Year Nothing Worked
The year nothing worked: S&P 500 down 19%, bonds post their worst year in history, and the 60/40 portfolio fails as stocks and bonds fall together. How the Fed’s tightening, Russia’s war, and crypto’s collapse created three simultaneous crises.
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The Cost of Living Crisis: Global Inflation Hits Consumers
US inflation hits 9.1%, the highest since 1981, as energy, food, and shelter costs converge in the most severe erosion of purchasing power in a generation. Why the cost of living crisis is reshaping consumer behaviour, politics, and investment landscapes.
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The Strong Dollar Wrecking Ball: Global Implications
The dollar surges to a 20-year high, functioning as a wrecking ball that transmits US monetary tightening to every economy on the planet. How the strongest currency move in two decades is reshaping global capital flows, emerging market debt dynamics, and multinational earnings.
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The Fed’s Most Aggressive Hiking Cycle in 40 Years Begins
The Fed begins what will become 525 basis points of rate increases over 16 months, the fastest tightening since Volcker. How the most comprehensive repricing of financial assets in a generation unfolded across every asset class.
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The Great Taper: Fed Signals End of Easy Money Era
The Fed doubles the pace of its taper and projects three rate hikes in 2022, marking the end of the easy-money era that produced the most extraordinary asset price inflation in a generation. What the unwinding means for portfolios built on unlimited liquidity.
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Inflation Hits 6.8%: The Fed Retires ‘Transitory’
CPI hits 6.8% as the Fed retires the word ‘transitory.’ How the most significant forecasting failure since ‘subprime is contained’ forces a pivot from patience to urgency, and what the end of the easy-money era means for markets.
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The Inflation Debate: Team Transitory vs. Team Persistent
Khan Capital | February 2021 Key Takeaways The most important debate in markets right now is not about valuations, nor about whether the post-pandemic recovery will be V-shaped or K-shaped. It is about inflation. More precisely, it is about whether the inflationary pressures now building across the global economy are a temporary consequence of pandemic…