Tag: Federal Reserve
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From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed Rate Hike Repricing Before Warsh’s First FOMC
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways A Week That Rewrote the Path of Policy For most of the past eighteen months, the central debate in rates markets was about the pace of descent: how quickly the Federal Reserve would lower the policy rate from its restrictive perch, and how far it would travel before…
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The $1 Trillion AI Semiconductor Selloff: When Good News Became Bad News
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways A Record Week That Broke on Friday The AI semiconductor selloff of 5 June 2026 will be remembered for its violence, but the more instructive detail is what preceded it. On Monday 1 June the Nasdaq Composite closed above 27,000 for the first time. On Tuesday the S&P…
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The 8-4 Split: Powell’s Last Stand and the Stagflation Question
Khan Capitals | May 2026 Key Takeaways A Vote That Has Not Happened in Three Decades The 29 April FOMC decision was, on its face, a non-event: the federal funds rate was held in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range for a third consecutive meeting, exactly as fed funds futures had priced. The substance, however, sat…
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Q1 2026 Bank Earnings: Trading Desks Ride the Volatility Wave as Net Interest Income Compresses
Khan Capital | April 2026 Key Takeaways A Volatility Quarter That Rewarded the Right Desks The first-quarter 2026 bank earnings season opened this week with results that, taken in isolation, would have been read as a clean beat for the American banking sector. Every one of the six large US franchises that reported between 14…
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Fed Holds Amid Iran War: Walking the Tightrope Between Jobs and Inflation
The Fed holds rates as 92,000 jobs vanish and oil-driven inflation surges. Caught between a weakening economy and rising prices, the central bank faces its most difficult policy dilemma since the Volcker era.
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Fed Cuts Again: Three Consecutive Cuts to Close 2025
Three consecutive rate cuts bring the fed funds rate to 3.50-3.75% as the most internally divided Fed in decades navigates missing data, political pressure, and a genuine stagflationary dilemma. Why the cutting cycle is approaching its endpoint.
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Fed Pauses Rate Cuts: Higher for Longer Returns
The Fed holds rates steady as tariffs create a stagflationary dilemma: rising inflation that argues for tightening and a softening labour market that argues for easing. Why higher for longer has returned in a new and more complex form.
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Fed Signals Fewer Cuts in 2025: Inflation Stalls, Markets Stumble
The Fed cuts rates but slashes its 2025 projection from four cuts to two, triggering the sharpest post-FOMC sell-off in months. Why the easy phase of the easing cycle is over and what it means for 2025.
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The Fed Cuts Rates: First Reduction Since 2020 and a 50bp Surprise
The Fed opens the easing cycle with a surprise 50bp cut, the first rate reduction since March 2020 and the largest opening move since the pre-financial-crisis era. What the pivot from inflation-fighting to employment-protection means for every asset class.
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Soft Landing in Sight? The US Economy Defies Recession Calls
Against every expectation, the US economy defies recession calls as GDP grows 2.5%, inflation falls from 9% to 3%, and the Fed projects three cuts in 2024. How the soft landing went from fantasy to base case, and why the celebration may be premature.