Tag: Federal Reserve
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The Joint Yen Intervention: Washington Buys Yen and the Carry Trade Blinks
Japan bought an estimated $59 billion of yen in a day, then the US Treasury joined: the first coordinated yen-buying in more than a decade, hours before a hawkish BoJ hold. Inside the joint yen intervention and what it means for the world’s largest funding trade.
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The Fed’s Triple Dissent: A 9-3 Hold and the Most Hawkish Vote in a Decade
The FOMC held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a hike: the first unified triple dissent since 2016. Inside the most hawkish Fed vote in a decade, Warsh’s no-guidance doctrine, and the 19-year high in the 30-year yield.
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The June CPI Report: A Ceasefire Dividend the Fed Will Not Bank
Khan Capitals | July 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change – Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. The Best Print in Years, and Nobody Cheered On paper, 14 July delivered the most encouraging inflation data the United States has seen in a long time. The consumer price index fell…
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The Hike That Came Back: Pricing a September Rate Hike After the Minutes
A week after the jobs report buried it, the September rate hike is back at 64% odds. Inside the Fed’s 9-8 split, the oil shock that revived the bet, and the yields quietly grinding toward May’s highs.
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The June Jobs Report: 57,000 and the Hike That Faded
June payrolls rose just 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Why the miss quieted the Fed hike debate, and what it means for markets.
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The Yen at a 40-Year Low: Why Record Intervention Keeps Failing
USD/JPY has traded through 162, the weakest yen since 1986, despite a record ¥11.73 trillion intervention and the highest Bank of Japan policy rate since 1995. Why the battle is really with the Fed.
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Gold’s Quiet Bear Market: 24% Off the Peak While Nobody Was Watching
From a $5,595.75 January peak to the low $4,200s: gold has entered a technical bear market almost unnoticed. Why the fear trade lost to the rate trade, and what survived the unwind.
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Core PCE at 3.4%: The Inflation Data Behind the Fed’s Hawkish Turn
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. An Inflation Print That Validates the Hawks For most of the past two years the argument inside the Federal Reserve was about the speed of the descent. Inflation was falling, the only…
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The 2026 Fed Stress Test: All 32 Banks Pass and the Payout Cycle Begins
All 32 banks absorbed a $708 billion paper depression with a 1.6 point capital dent. What the 2026 Fed stress test proves, what it no longer measures, and where the payout cycle goes next.
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The Hawkish Hold: Inside Warsh’s First FOMC and the End of Forward Guidance
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. Warsh’s First FOMC: A Hold That Was Read as a Hike Warsh’s first FOMC as chair was never likely to turn on the rate decision itself. Fed funds futures had assigned roughly…