Tag: Federal Reserve
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The 5% World Arrives: A Failed Auction Takes the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a 19-Year High
A weak $70 billion five-year auction, with one of the largest tails on record, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.11 per cent, its highest since 2007. Inside the buyers’ strike, why this is not October 2023, and what a durable 5 per cent world reprices.
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The Fed Rate Hike of September 2026: 25 Basis Points, a Unanimous Vote and a Promise of More
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 per cent, its first hike since 2023, with the dots promising more. Inside the unanimous vote, the petrol-led CPI the Fed is insuring against, and a 631-point market answer.
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The Treasury Becomes a Buyer: $6 Billion Bond Buybacks Meet a Three-Year Yield High
The US Treasury tripled its long-end buybacks to $6 billion per operation as the 10-year yield hit its highest since October 2023. Why the intervention is not QE, what broke the long end, and the contradiction of a Fed that may hike into it.
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August Jobs Report: 162,000 Jobs and the Revision That Erased the Slowdown
The August jobs report delivered 162,000 jobs, triple the forecast, and revised away July’s decline, pushing September Fed hike odds to 60 per cent.
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The Fed Rate Hike Is Back on the Table: Hot PCE Meets Warsh’s Jackson Hole Warning
Core PCE stuck at 3.3 per cent, then Warsh told Jackson Hole the Fed has “work to do”. September hike odds jumped to 46 per cent, the two-year hit a one-month high, and the long end quietly approved. Inside the day the tightening question reopened.
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The Gold Price Rally: From $4,000 to $4,700 on Record Central Bank Buying
Gold has run from $4,000 to test $4,700 in a month: 5 per cent in a week, record second-quarter central bank buying, a $40 trillion US debt pile and a wobbling dollar. Inside the gold price rally, what is structural, what is cyclical, and what would reverse it.
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Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh Takes the Podium With Neutral Already Priced In
Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, into a split mandate, a 30-year yield near 5.27 per cent and a Treasury intervention that failed within two sessions. Why 69 per cent expecting a neutral speech is what makes it risky.
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The Global Bond Selloff: Four Markets at Multidecade Highs and a $4 Billion Answer
Four sovereign bond markets set multidecade yield records in one week: 30-year Treasuries at 5.34 per cent, gilts at 1998 highs, JGBs at 1996 highs. Inside the global bond selloff, the record July deficit behind it, and the Treasury’s $4 billion buyback answer.
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July Retail Sales Fall 0.6%: The Month the US Consumer Joined the Slowdown
US retail sales fell 0.6 per cent in July, the largest monthly drop in over a year, days after the first payrolls contraction in 53 months. Inside the breakdown, the Prime Day distortion, the control group that fell anyway, and what the sequence means for the Fed.
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September Rate Hike Odds Collapse: The Fed’s Eight-Day Reversal
Tame July inflation five days after a payrolls contraction has halved the odds of a September rate hike. Inside the eight-day repricing, the energy base effect flattering the headline, and why the bond market is not buying it.