Tag: Recession Risk
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August Jobs Report: 162,000 Jobs and the Revision That Erased the Slowdown
The August jobs report delivered 162,000 jobs, triple the forecast, and revised away July’s decline, pushing September Fed hike odds to 60 per cent.
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Lululemon Q2 Earnings: The $134.5 Million Refund Behind a 15 Per Cent Fall
Lululemon Q2 earnings beat on a one-off tariff refund while revenue fell 4.3 per cent and guidance was cut by double digits, sending shares below $100.
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Retail Earnings Week: Tariff Refunds, a Walmart Warning and a Narrowing Consumer
Walmart’s slowest US comps in six years, Target’s traffic beat, a frozen housing market, and billions in tariff refunds flattering the sector’s profits. Inside a distorted retail earnings week and what it really says about the US consumer.
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China’s July Stall: Retail Sales at 0.6% and an Investment Contraction That Keeps Deepening
China’s July data missed across the board: retail sales grew 0.6 per cent against 1.5 expected, industrial production slowed and investment contracted 6.7 per cent. Inside the balance-sheet recession behind the numbers, the deflation China exports, and what would change the story.
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July Retail Sales Fall 0.6%: The Month the US Consumer Joined the Slowdown
US retail sales fell 0.6 per cent in July, the largest monthly drop in over a year, days after the first payrolls contraction in 53 months. Inside the breakdown, the Prime Day distortion, the control group that fell anyway, and what the sequence means for the Fed.
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Credit Spreads at Record Tights: The 74 Basis Point Question
US investment grade spreads sit at 74 basis points, the first percentile of twenty years, in a summer of oil war and hike debates. Inside the yield illusion doing the buying, and what the tightest credit market in a generation is not pricing.
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The June Jobs Report: 57,000 and the Hike That Faded
June payrolls rose just 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Why the miss quieted the Fed hike debate, and what it means for markets.
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The Hawkish Hold: Inside Warsh’s First FOMC and the End of Forward Guidance
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change – Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. Warsh’s First FOMC: A Hold That Was Read as a Hike Warsh’s first FOMC as chair was never likely to turn on the rate decision itself. Fed funds futures had assigned roughly…
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From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed Rate Hike Repricing Before Warsh’s First FOMC
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change – Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Week That Rewrote the Path of Policy For most of the past eighteen months, the central debate in rates markets was about the pace of descent: how quickly the Federal Reserve…
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The 8-4 Split: Powell’s Last Stand and the Stagflation Question
Khan Capitals | May 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change – Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Vote That Has Not Happened in Three Decades The 29 April FOMC decision was, on its face, a non-event: the federal funds rate was held in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range…