Tag: Recession Risk
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Credit Spreads at Record Tights: The 74 Basis Point Question
US investment grade spreads sit at 74 basis points, the first percentile of twenty years, in a summer of oil war and hike debates. Inside the yield illusion doing the buying, and what the tightest credit market in a generation is not pricing.
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The June Jobs Report: 57,000 and the Hike That Faded
June payrolls rose just 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Why the miss quieted the Fed hike debate, and what it means for markets.
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The Hawkish Hold: Inside Warsh’s First FOMC and the End of Forward Guidance
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. Warsh’s First FOMC: A Hold That Was Read as a Hike Warsh’s first FOMC as chair was never likely to turn on the rate decision itself. Fed funds futures had assigned roughly…
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From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed Rate Hike Repricing Before Warsh’s First FOMC
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Week That Rewrote the Path of Policy For most of the past eighteen months, the central debate in rates markets was about the pace of descent: how quickly the Federal Reserve…
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The 8-4 Split: Powell’s Last Stand and the Stagflation Question
Khan Capitals | May 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. A Vote That Has Not Happened in Three Decades The 29 April FOMC decision was, on its face, a non-event: the federal funds rate was held in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range…
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2026 Outlook: Navigating Tariffs, AI, and Geopolitical Risk
Wall Street targets range from 7,100 to 8,000 for the S&P 500 as AI capex approaches $520 billion, valuations sit at dot-com-era levels, and the global easing cycle fractures. How to navigate the most complex investment environment since the pandemic.
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Fed Pauses Rate Cuts: Higher for Longer Returns
The Fed holds rates steady as tariffs create a stagflationary dilemma: rising inflation that argues for tightening and a softening labour market that argues for easing. Why higher for longer has returned in a new and more complex form.
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The Fed Cuts Rates: First Reduction Since 2020 and a 50bp Surprise
The Fed opens the easing cycle with a surprise 50bp cut, the first rate reduction since March 2020 and the largest opening move since the pre-financial-crisis era. What the pivot from inflation-fighting to employment-protection means for every asset class.
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Soft Landing in Sight? The US Economy Defies Recession Calls
Against every expectation, the US economy defies recession calls as GDP grows 2.5%, inflation falls from 9% to 3%, and the Fed projects three cuts in 2024. How the soft landing went from fantasy to base case, and why the celebration may be premature.
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US Debt Ceiling Crisis: Markets Hold Their Breath
The US government approaches the X-date as debt ceiling negotiations go to the wire. Why the 78th crisis is both political theatre and a genuine reminder that the world’s reserve currency rests on a political foundation that periodically shakes.