Tag: Inflation
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The 5% World Arrives: A Failed Auction Takes the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a 19-Year High
A weak $70 billion five-year auction, with one of the largest tails on record, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.11 per cent, its highest since 2007. Inside the buyers’ strike, why this is not October 2023, and what a durable 5 per cent world reprices.
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The Fed Rate Hike of September 2026: 25 Basis Points, a Unanimous Vote and a Promise of More
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 per cent, its first hike since 2023, with the dots promising more. Inside the unanimous vote, the petrol-led CPI the Fed is insuring against, and a 631-point market answer.
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The ECB Rate Hike: 2.5% Against an Oil Shock, With the Lesson of 2022 in Hand
The ECB raised all three rates by 25 basis points, its second hike of 2026, as energy pushed euro area inflation to 3.3 per cent. Inside the projections that show core above headline by 2027, and why Frankfurt is fighting the last war on purpose.
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The US-Canada Trade War Goes Kinetic: Smoot-Hawley’s Ghost and a C$27.6 Billion Answer
Canada’s counter-tariffs on C$27.6 billion of US goods took effect as Washington moved from 50 per cent duties to outright import bans, the first use of Smoot-Hawley’s Section 338 in 96 years. Inside the escalation calendar and what it means for the Fed, the loonie and trade-exposed equities.
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August Jobs Report: 162,000 Jobs and the Revision That Erased the Slowdown
The August jobs report delivered 162,000 jobs, triple the forecast, and revised away July’s decline, pushing September Fed hike odds to 60 per cent.
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The Fed Rate Hike Is Back on the Table: Hot PCE Meets Warsh’s Jackson Hole Warning
Core PCE stuck at 3.3 per cent, then Warsh told Jackson Hole the Fed has “work to do”. September hike odds jumped to 46 per cent, the two-year hit a one-month high, and the long end quietly approved. Inside the day the tightening question reopened.
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The Black Sea Grain Crisis: Wheat Up 51 Per Cent as Two Breadbaskets Go Offline
Wheat is up 10 per cent this week and 51 per cent this year after strikes and navigation bans took more than 90 per cent of Russia’s Black Sea grain export capacity offline and idled Odesa. Inside the food-price shock the market is still underpricing.
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The Gold Price Rally: From $4,000 to $4,700 on Record Central Bank Buying
Gold has run from $4,000 to test $4,700 in a month: 5 per cent in a week, record second-quarter central bank buying, a $40 trillion US debt pile and a wobbling dollar. Inside the gold price rally, what is structural, what is cyclical, and what would reverse it.
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Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh Takes the Podium With Neutral Already Priced In
Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, into a split mandate, a 30-year yield near 5.27 per cent and a Treasury intervention that failed within two sessions. Why 69 per cent expecting a neutral speech is what makes it risky.
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Retail Earnings Week: Tariff Refunds, a Walmart Warning and a Narrowing Consumer
Walmart’s slowest US comps in six years, Target’s traffic beat, a frozen housing market, and billions in tariff refunds flattering the sector’s profits. Inside a distorted retail earnings week and what it really says about the US consumer.