Tag: Bond Market
-
The 5% World Arrives: A Failed Auction Takes the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a 19-Year High
A weak $70 billion five-year auction, with one of the largest tails on record, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.11 per cent, its highest since 2007. Inside the buyers’ strike, why this is not October 2023, and what a durable 5 per cent world reprices.
-
The Fed Rate Hike of September 2026: 25 Basis Points, a Unanimous Vote and a Promise of More
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 per cent, its first hike since 2023, with the dots promising more. Inside the unanimous vote, the petrol-led CPI the Fed is insuring against, and a 631-point market answer.
-
The Treasury Becomes a Buyer: $6 Billion Bond Buybacks Meet a Three-Year Yield High
The US Treasury tripled its long-end buybacks to $6 billion per operation as the 10-year yield hit its highest since October 2023. Why the intervention is not QE, what broke the long end, and the contradiction of a Fed that may hike into it.
-
The Fed Rate Hike Is Back on the Table: Hot PCE Meets Warsh’s Jackson Hole Warning
Core PCE stuck at 3.3 per cent, then Warsh told Jackson Hole the Fed has “work to do”. September hike odds jumped to 46 per cent, the two-year hit a one-month high, and the long end quietly approved. Inside the day the tightening question reopened.
-
Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh Takes the Podium With Neutral Already Priced In
Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, into a split mandate, a 30-year yield near 5.27 per cent and a Treasury intervention that failed within two sessions. Why 69 per cent expecting a neutral speech is what makes it risky.
-
The Global Bond Selloff: Four Markets at Multidecade Highs and a $4 Billion Answer
Four sovereign bond markets set multidecade yield records in one week: 30-year Treasuries at 5.34 per cent, gilts at 1998 highs, JGBs at 1996 highs. Inside the global bond selloff, the record July deficit behind it, and the Treasury’s $4 billion buyback answer.
-
UK Q2 GDP Growth: The World Cup Quarter That Business Services Won
The UK grew 0.4 per cent in the second quarter and the headlines credited the World Cup and the heatwave. The ONS said no such thing. Inside a quarter driven by computer programming, advertising and R&D, while pubs and restaurants shrank.
-
September Rate Hike Odds Collapse: The Fed’s Eight-Day Reversal
Tame July inflation five days after a payrolls contraction has halved the odds of a September rate hike. Inside the eight-day repricing, the energy base effect flattering the headline, and why the bond market is not buying it.
-
Amazon’s $3 Trillion Market Cap: Inside the Melt-Up’s Fine Print
Amazon became the fifth company worth $3 trillion, the Dow set records four sessions running, and the 10-year yield hit an 18-month high in the same week. Inside a melt-up built on two companies, a founder’s share sale and an oil price falling for the right reasons.
-
The Bank of England’s Dovish Hold: 6-3 at 3.75 Per Cent and the Hike Bailey Buried
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent with Mann, Greene and Pill dissenting for a hike, and Bailey told markets he is not edging toward one. Two-year gilts saw their steepest drop since June. Inside the dovish hold, the MPR’s quiet undershoot, and the Fed mirror.