Tag: Bond Market
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Amazon’s $3 Trillion Market Cap: Inside the Melt-Up’s Fine Print
Amazon became the fifth company worth $3 trillion, the Dow set records four sessions running, and the 10-year yield hit an 18-month high in the same week. Inside a melt-up built on two companies, a founder’s share sale and an oil price falling for the right reasons.
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The Bank of England’s Dovish Hold: 6-3 at 3.75 Per Cent and the Hike Bailey Buried
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent with Mann, Greene and Pill dissenting for a hike, and Bailey told markets he is not edging toward one. Two-year gilts saw their steepest drop since June. Inside the dovish hold, the MPR’s quiet undershoot, and the Fed mirror.
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The Fed’s Triple Dissent: A 9-3 Hold and the Most Hawkish Vote in a Decade
The FOMC held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a hike: the first unified triple dissent since 2016. Inside the most hawkish Fed vote in a decade, Warsh’s no-guidance doctrine, and the 19-year high in the 30-year yield.
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Credit Spreads at Record Tights: The 74 Basis Point Question
US investment grade spreads sit at 74 basis points, the first percentile of twenty years, in a summer of oil war and hike debates. Inside the yield illusion doing the buying, and what the tightest credit market in a generation is not pricing.
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UK Gilt Yields Above 5%: The Bond Market Greets Prime Minister Burnham
Andy Burnham became the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade and the 10-year gilt moved back above 5 per cent within hours. Inside the term premium, the VAT signal, and what would calm the long end.
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The Hike That Came Back: Pricing a September Rate Hike After the Minutes
A week after the jobs report buried it, the September rate hike is back at 64% odds. Inside the Fed’s 9-8 split, the oil shock that revived the bet, and the yields quietly grinding toward May’s highs.
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The June Jobs Report: 57,000 and the Hike That Faded
June payrolls rose just 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Why the miss quieted the Fed hike debate, and what it means for markets.
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Core PCE at 3.4%: The Inflation Data Behind the Fed’s Hawkish Turn
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. An Inflation Print That Validates the Hawks For most of the past two years the argument inside the Federal Reserve was about the speed of the descent. Inflation was falling, the only…
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The UK Gilt Market and Starmer’s Resignation: Pricing a Change in Westminster
A prime minister resigned and the gilt market barely moved. Inside the slow repricing of UK fiscal credibility: 1998-era long yields, a split Bank of England, and the questions that will decide the autumn.
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The Hawkish Hold: Inside Warsh’s First FOMC and the End of Forward Guidance
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change — Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. Warsh’s First FOMC: A Hold That Was Read as a Hike Warsh’s first FOMC as chair was never likely to turn on the rate decision itself. Fed funds futures had assigned roughly…