Tag: Bond Market
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From Cuts to Hikes: The Fed Rate Hike Repricing Before Warsh’s First FOMC
Khan Capitals | June 2026 Key Takeaways A Week That Rewrote the Path of Policy For most of the past eighteen months, the central debate in rates markets was about the pace of descent: how quickly the Federal Reserve would lower the policy rate from its restrictive perch, and how far it would travel before…
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The 8-4 Split: Powell’s Last Stand and the Stagflation Question
Khan Capitals | May 2026 Key Takeaways A Vote That Has Not Happened in Three Decades The 29 April FOMC decision was, on its face, a non-event: the federal funds rate was held in the 3.5-3.75 per cent range for a third consecutive meeting, exactly as fed funds futures had priced. The substance, however, sat…
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The 90-Day Tariff Pause: Markets Whipsaw on Policy Reversal
A single social media post triggers the third-largest rally in S&P 500 history as Trump pauses the tariffs that had pushed markets to the brink of a bear market. Why the bond market forced the reversal, and what remains unresolved.
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Trump Returns: The Market’s Reaction to a Second Term
The Dow surges 1,507 points to record highs as markets price in tax cuts, deregulation, and crypto-friendly policy. But the bond market tells a different story, and the macro starting point is nothing like 2017.
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10-Year Treasury Hits 5%: Bond Vigilantes Return
The 10-year Treasury yield hits 5% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal deficits, retreating foreign buyers, and the return of the term premium produce the most severe bond bear market in a generation. Why 5% is both a threat and a generational opportunity.
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US Debt Ceiling Crisis: Markets Hold Their Breath
The US government approaches the X-date as debt ceiling negotiations go to the wire. Why the 78th crisis is both political theatre and a genuine reminder that the world’s reserve currency rests on a political foundation that periodically shakes.
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Credit Suisse Emergency: UBS Forced Merger and AT1 Bond Wipeout
UBS acquires Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion as FINMA wipes out $17.2 billion in AT1 bonds, inverting the creditor hierarchy and sending shockwaves through the global CoCo market. What the largest AT1 loss in history means for bank capital markets.
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2022 Year in Review: The Year Nothing Worked
The year nothing worked: S&P 500 down 19%, bonds post their worst year in history, and the 60/40 portfolio fails as stocks and bonds fall together. How the Fed’s tightening, Russia’s war, and crypto’s collapse created three simultaneous crises.
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Bank of Japan Shocks Markets: Yield Curve Control Adjustment
The Bank of Japan stuns global markets by widening its yield curve control band, triggering a 3% yen surge and global bond sell-off. Why this technical adjustment is the first step in unwinding the most extreme monetary experiment in central banking history.
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The Global Bond Bear Market: Worst Year for Fixed Income in Centuries
The worst year for bonds in at least 250 years erases $10 trillion in value, breaks the 60/40 portfolio, and ends the assumption that government bonds are safe assets. Why the four-decade bond bull market is over and what replaces it.