Tag: Interest Rates
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July Retail Sales Fall 0.6%: The Month the US Consumer Joined the Slowdown
US retail sales fell 0.6 per cent in July, the largest monthly drop in over a year, days after the first payrolls contraction in 53 months. Inside the breakdown, the Prime Day distortion, the control group that fell anyway, and what the sequence means for the Fed.
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September Rate Hike Odds Collapse: The Fed’s Eight-Day Reversal
Tame July inflation five days after a payrolls contraction has halved the odds of a September rate hike. Inside the eight-day repricing, the energy base effect flattering the headline, and why the bond market is not buying it.
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The Bank of England’s Dovish Hold: 6-3 at 3.75 Per Cent and the Hike Bailey Buried
The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75 per cent with Mann, Greene and Pill dissenting for a hike, and Bailey told markets he is not edging toward one. Two-year gilts saw their steepest drop since June. Inside the dovish hold, the MPR’s quiet undershoot, and the Fed mirror.
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The Fed’s Triple Dissent: A 9-3 Hold and the Most Hawkish Vote in a Decade
The FOMC held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a hike: the first unified triple dissent since 2016. Inside the most hawkish Fed vote in a decade, Warsh’s no-guidance doctrine, and the 19-year high in the 30-year yield.
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The ECB’s Hawkish Hold: Rates Stay at 2.25 Per Cent With September Live
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25 per cent on 23 July, six weeks after its first hike since 2023. With inflation at 2.8 per cent, growth at 0.8 per cent and Brent near $92, the September decision is being written in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Credit Spreads at Record Tights: The 74 Basis Point Question
US investment grade spreads sit at 74 basis points, the first percentile of twenty years, in a summer of oil war and hike debates. Inside the yield illusion doing the buying, and what the tightest credit market in a generation is not pricing.
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UK Gilt Yields Above 5%: The Bond Market Greets Prime Minister Burnham
Andy Burnham became the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade and the 10-year gilt moved back above 5 per cent within hours. Inside the term premium, the VAT signal, and what would calm the long end.
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The June CPI Report: A Ceasefire Dividend the Fed Will Not Bank
Khan Capitals | July 2026 Key Takeaways Part of: The Fed’s Regime Change – Khan Capital’s hub on the Fed’s 2026 regime change. The Best Print in Years, and Nobody Cheered On paper, 14 July delivered the most encouraging inflation data the United States has seen in a long time. The consumer price index fell…
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The Hike That Came Back: Pricing a September Rate Hike After the Minutes
A week after the jobs report buried it, the September rate hike is back at 64% odds. Inside the Fed’s 9-8 split, the oil shock that revived the bet, and the yields quietly grinding toward May’s highs.
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The June Jobs Report: 57,000 and the Hike That Faded
June payrolls rose just 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. Why the miss quieted the Fed hike debate, and what it means for markets.