Tag: Interest Rates
-
The 5% World Arrives: A Failed Auction Takes the 10-Year Treasury Yield to a 19-Year High
A weak $70 billion five-year auction, with one of the largest tails on record, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.11 per cent, its highest since 2007. Inside the buyers’ strike, why this is not October 2023, and what a durable 5 per cent world reprices.
-
The Bank of Japan Rate Hike: 1.25%, a 31-Year High and a Yen That Fell Anyway
The Bank of Japan raised rates 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent, a 31-year high, and the yen fell past 157 anyway. Inside the 7-2 vote, the carry trade that refuses to die, and why Tokyo now helps set the price of money everywhere.
-
The Fed Rate Hike of September 2026: 25 Basis Points, a Unanimous Vote and a Promise of More
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 per cent, its first hike since 2023, with the dots promising more. Inside the unanimous vote, the petrol-led CPI the Fed is insuring against, and a 631-point market answer.
-
The ECB Rate Hike: 2.5% Against an Oil Shock, With the Lesson of 2022 in Hand
The ECB raised all three rates by 25 basis points, its second hike of 2026, as energy pushed euro area inflation to 3.3 per cent. Inside the projections that show core above headline by 2027, and why Frankfurt is fighting the last war on purpose.
-
The Treasury Becomes a Buyer: $6 Billion Bond Buybacks Meet a Three-Year Yield High
The US Treasury tripled its long-end buybacks to $6 billion per operation as the 10-year yield hit its highest since October 2023. Why the intervention is not QE, what broke the long end, and the contradiction of a Fed that may hike into it.
-
August Jobs Report: 162,000 Jobs and the Revision That Erased the Slowdown
The August jobs report delivered 162,000 jobs, triple the forecast, and revised away July’s decline, pushing September Fed hike odds to 60 per cent.
-
The Fed Rate Hike Is Back on the Table: Hot PCE Meets Warsh’s Jackson Hole Warning
Core PCE stuck at 3.3 per cent, then Warsh told Jackson Hole the Fed has “work to do”. September hike odds jumped to 46 per cent, the two-year hit a one-month high, and the long end quietly approved. Inside the day the tightening question reopened.
-
Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh Takes the Podium With Neutral Already Priced In
Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, into a split mandate, a 30-year yield near 5.27 per cent and a Treasury intervention that failed within two sessions. Why 69 per cent expecting a neutral speech is what makes it risky.
-
The Global Bond Selloff: Four Markets at Multidecade Highs and a $4 Billion Answer
Four sovereign bond markets set multidecade yield records in one week: 30-year Treasuries at 5.34 per cent, gilts at 1998 highs, JGBs at 1996 highs. Inside the global bond selloff, the record July deficit behind it, and the Treasury’s $4 billion buyback answer.
-
The Small-Cap Rotation Week: Russell 2000 Records While the Market Sells AI Beats
The Russell 2000 closed the week at a record 3,068, its 27th of 2026, while record results from Applied Materials and a $4 billion guidance beat from Cisco were both sold. Inside the small-cap rotation, the AI trade’s new grading curve, and what decides whether the broadening lasts.